Daily Rundown

January 14, 2026

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

84.0 - The NFIB's small business uncertainty index in December, down from 91.0 in the prior month and the lowest since June 2024

Quote of the Day

"...when you're guessing what the macro environment is going to be, if you ask me, in the short run, call it six months and nine months and even a year, it's pretty positive. Consumers have money. There's still jobs, even though it's weakened a little bit. There's...a lot of stimulus coming..." - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon

Tuesday's Highlights

The CPI (December) rose by 0.3 percent on the month and 2.7 percent year-over-year.

The core CPI (December) rose by 0.2 percent on the month and 2.6 percent year-over-year.

New home sales (October) slipped by 0.1 percent to a 737,000 annual pace. The median sales price was down 8.0 percent year-over-year.

The small business optimism index (December) ticked up to 99.5 from a prior 99.0. Hiring and capex plans fell while growth expectations moved higher.

JPMorgan revenue (Q4) was up by 6.9 percent year-over-year. Total loans rose by 10.8 percent.

Delta revenue passenger miles (Q4) fell by 0.9 percent year-over-year. 

Quick Commentary

Yesterday's inflation report was not quite as tame as suggested by the headline -the rent component perked up a bit while recreation prices rose at their fastest monthly pace on record- but on the whole was consistent with a continued trend toward disinflation. At 2.6 percent, the core inflation rate now stands at its lowest level since early 2021 after sliding by four full percentage points since its recent peak of just over three years ago. There are emerging upside risks due to the potential for monetary and fiscal stimulus to spark a renewed upturn in the economy, but, with the labor market lethargic and, JPM's numbers notwithstanding, overall credit growth still limited, the most likely path from here is still to the downside.

Today's Highlights

Retail sales

PPI

Existing home sales

Business inventories

Mortgage applications

Daily Trivia

What company's headquarters offers a meet-and-great with a costumed polar bear, a seeming incongruity in a city that receives an average of just two inches of snow per year?

(Monday's Question: What is the most fragmented large industry in the U.S., with the top ten firms controlling less than 15 percent of the overall market? Answer: Trucking)