Daily Rundown

November 6, 2025

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

12.4 - Share of credit card balances that were 90 days or more delinquent in the third quarter, the highest since the first quarter of 2011

Quote of the Day

"Yes, of course, there are dealings with foreign powers, but the vehicle is imposition of taxes on Americans, and that has always been the core power of Congress." - Chief Justice John Roberts

Wednesday's Highlights

The ISM services index (October) rose by 2.4 points to an eight-month high 52.4. New orders jumped while employment continued to contract.

ADP's private employment estimate (October) moved higher by 42,000, bouncing back after declines in three out of the prior four months.

Household debt (Q3) rose by 1.1 percent, the largest increase in six quarters, as credit card balances were up by 2.0 percent.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 10/25) fell by 0.6 percent, the fifth decline in the last six weeks.

McDonald's same-store sales (Q3) were up by 3.6 percent year-over-year overall and 2.6 percent in the U.S.

Quick Commentary

The data flow was generally positive yesterday, led by upside surprises in the ISM and ADP reports. There were still signs of stress, however, as ADP indicated that small and mid-sized businesses continue to shed workers, the New York Fed data showed that credit card, auto loan, and student loan delinquencies remain elevated, and McDonald's noted big traffic gains from higher-income customers and big losses from the lower-income cohorts. The risks, then, remain in place even as this expansion continues to exhibit remarkable resilience. Yesterday's Supreme Court hearing also had mixed implications for the economic outlook. The arguments suggested a significant possibility that the high court will invalidate the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which would mean at least a temporary reduction in fiscal restraint but also another bout of uncertainty as the White House pursues alternative routes to the same policies.

Today's Highlights

Layoff announcements

Airbnb earnings

Daily Trivia

What company introduced a five-note "audio trademark" in 1994 as part of its campaign to transition into a consumer-recognized brand?

(Wednesday's Question: At the behest of Washington state politicians, what industry was bailed out by the U.S. government in 2000 in response to fading demand and growing import competition? Answer: Apples)