Daily Rundown

July 3, 2025

Chart of the Day

Number of the Day

25.0 - Percentage of months since 2010 in which declines in ADP's employment metric have been matched by drops in the government's private payroll tally

Quote of the Day

"What I see is a solid economy. Not a strong economy, but a solid economy, one where people are not yet pulling back." - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin

Wednesday's Highlights

ADP's employment measure (June) fell by 33,000, the first decline in more than two years. Jobs at small businesses were down by 47,000.

Mortgage purchase applications (week of 6/21) inched up by 0.1 percent. The average 30-year fixed rate fell to a 12-week low 6.8 percent.

Quick Commentary

The drop in the ADP employment series doesn't necessarily point to a soft jobs report this morning, but it should be taken on its own merits as a sign that the labor market is cooling. It is especially telling that the pullback last month was led by small businesses, which are generally more sensitive to shifts in the economy than their larger company counterparts. This is still a downshifting labor market, which in turn means that the risks are rising for the economy at large.

Today's Highlights

Employment

Initial unemployment claims

ISM services survey

Trade balance

Factory orders

Daily Trivia

What promotional vehicle made headlines in 2007 when it was pulled over under suspicion that its Wisconsin license plate, which read "YUMMY", was stolen?

(Wednesday's Question: What stock was at the center of the first boom and bust in U.S. history, as it crashed after rising by more than 1100 percent in the summer of 1791? Answer: Bank of the United States)